WBN Data Desk™
Condo Demand Pressure Model
v1.1 · Vancouver Market · Qualified-Buyer Engine · Cast OS™ v0.3 aligned
v1.1 · 06-17-26
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Thesis
This is not a supply model. It is a qualified-household capacity model. A buyer only counts if they can clear income, down-payment, and credit thresholds at today's carrying cost — and still feel confident enough to sign. Qualified Buyers ÷ Active Supply = Demand Pressure Index.
Scenario Select
10 forward paths, recalculated liveLive Reading
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Blended Demand Pressure Index across all unit types under the selected scenario.
Headline Readout
Required Household Income
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Higher of GDS / TDS thresholds
Ownership Gap vs. Rent
–
Carrying cost minus comparable rent
Effective Buyer Pool
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Active qualified buyers, all unit types
Implied Price Pressure
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Positive = model-implied downside risk
Run the model to see the read.
Mortgage Qualification & Carrying-Cost Inputs
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Qualifying rate follows the OSFI rule: greater of contract rate + stress add-on, or the 5.25% floor. Required income is the higher of the GDS and TDS thresholds.
Other monthly costs (tax, insurance, utilities) scale with unit size; the 2-bed value above is the baseline. Building-risk inputs apply a confidence drag representing reserve-fund gaps, special-levy exposure, and insurance-claim history.
Household Income Bands & AI Job-Shock Exposure
AI displacement is modeled as a band-specific shock to professional/knowledge-work income tiers — the bands most exposed to white-collar automation, and historically the core of the condo buyer base.
Households, midpoints, and eligibility rates are starter assumptions — replace with Statistics Canada household income-distribution data for your CMA when available.
Households vs. active buyers, by income band (headline unit type)
Buyer pool by segment
Shares are normalized to 100% automatically and apply to the non-investor pool; investors are added separately via the Investor Add-On in Assumptions.
Studio Through 3-Bedroom
Each unit type carries its own price, active supply, comparable rent, and strata fee. Required income and DPI are computed independently per type, then blended for the headline reading.
Required income by unit type
Demand Pressure Index by unit type
All Ten Paths, Side By Side
Blended across all unit types| Scenario | AI Tier | Rate Δ | Confidence | Buyers | DPI | Signal |
|---|
Demand Pressure Index across scenarios
Stress-Test Two Variables At Once
Holds the current scenario and all other assumptions fixed while sweeping the two variables you choose. Uses the headline unit type.
< 0.6 major repricing risk
0.6–0.8 meaningful pressure
0.8–1.0 softening
1.0–1.5 balanced
> 1.5 strong seller
Tier 1 — Critical Mortgage-Qualification Drivers
~45% combined weight| Factor | Weight | Impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Household income growth | 20% | 10/10 | The foundation of mortgage qualification — without it, affordability breaks regardless of rates. |
| Mortgage rates | 15% | 9/10 | Directly reduces borrowing power and pushes the required income higher. |
| Employment / job security | 10% | 9.5/10 | Households pull back before layoffs appear if future income feels uncertain. |
| Down payment availability | 10% | 8.5/10 | Many households clear the income bar but fail the cash/equity requirement. |
Tier 2 — Major Demand Drivers
~30% combined weight| Factor | Weight | Impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Immigration | 8% | 8/10 | Supports long-run demand, but most newcomers rent before they buy. |
| Population growth | 5% | 7/10 | Adds housing demand generally, not necessarily ownership demand specifically. |
| Rent levels | 5% | 7/10 | High rents push toward ownership — unless carrying costs rise even faster. |
| Condo supply | 7% | 7/10 | Only becomes a problem relative to the qualified buyer pool, not population alone. |
| Investor participation | 5% | 7/10 | A pullback removes marginal demand quickly, as modeled in the Investor Pullback scenario. |
Tier 3 — Emerging Structural Drivers
~20% combined weight| Factor | Weight | Impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI job displacement | 5–15% | 8–10/10 | Could shrink the $150K–$300K professional bands that anchor condo demand. |
| White-collar wage compression | 5% | 8/10 | Reduces buying power even without outright job loss. |
| Consumer confidence | 5% | 7/10 | Purchases depend on belief that tomorrow's income looks better than today's. |
| Economic uncertainty | 5% | 7/10 | Delays large, hard-to-reverse commitments like a condo purchase. |
Tier 4 — Condo-Specific Cost Risks
~15% combined weight| Factor | Weight | Impact | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strata fees | 5% | 7.5/10 | Functions like a second, permanent mortgage payment. |
| Special levy risk | 5% | 8/10 | Future repair exposure can discount older buildings sharply. |
| Insurance costs | 2% | 6/10 | Rising premiums add directly to monthly carrying cost. |
| Building age / reserve-fund quality | 3% | 7/10 | Older, underfunded buildings carry higher capital-replacement risk. |
The Killer Variable: Qualified Household Formation™
The number of households that can simultaneously clear stable employment, adequate income, down-payment capacity, and the confidence to buy. If AI displacement, higher rates, strata-fee inflation, and weak wage growth shrink that pool, condo prices stay exposed even in a high-population-growth city.
Data & Methodology
All starter values in this cast are editable placeholders. Replace them as fresher public data becomes available — nothing here calls an external API.
Supply, sales & price
- Greater Vancouver REALTORS® monthly market report
- MLS® Home Price Index, condo/apartment benchmark
- Active apartment listings & months of inventory
Rates & qualification
- Bank of Canada policy rate
- Posted 5-year fixed mortgage rates
- OSFI mortgage stress-test rule
Rent & vacancy
- CMHC Rental Market Report
- Average rent by unit type, Vancouver CMA
- Purpose-built rental completions
Population & immigration
- Statistics Canada population estimates
- BC population projections
- IRCC permanent-resident admissions
Labour & income
- Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey
- Vancouver CMA unemployment rate
- Household income distribution by band
Condo ownership cost
- Average strata fees by building age/type
- Depreciation report / reserve-fund disclosures
- Property insurance and tax estimates
Core Formulas
Qualifying Rate = max(Contract Rate + Stress Add-On, 5.25%)
Required Income = max(Carrying Cost ÷ GDS Limit, (Carrying Cost + Other Debt) ÷ TDS Limit) × 12
Qualified Buyers = Households × AI-Shock Factor × Income Eligibility × Down-Payment Rate × Credit Rate × Confidence × Annual Intent
Demand Pressure Index (DPI) = Σ Qualified Buyers (incl. investor add-on) ÷ Σ Active Supply
Implied Price Pressure = (1 − DPI) × Elasticity, when DPI < 1.0
Required Income = max(Carrying Cost ÷ GDS Limit, (Carrying Cost + Other Debt) ÷ TDS Limit) × 12
Qualified Buyers = Households × AI-Shock Factor × Income Eligibility × Down-Payment Rate × Credit Rate × Confidence × Annual Intent
Demand Pressure Index (DPI) = Σ Qualified Buyers (incl. investor add-on) ÷ Σ Active Supply
Implied Price Pressure = (1 − DPI) × Elasticity, when DPI < 1.0
Signal Scale
| DPI range | Signal |
|---|---|
| > 1.50 | Strong seller market |
| 1.00 – 1.50 | Balanced / firm market |
| 0.80 – 1.00 | Softening market |
| 0.60 – 0.80 | Meaningful price pressure |
| < 0.60 | Major repricing risk |
Condo Demand Pressure Model™ v1.1 | WBN Cast OS™ v0.3 | 06-17-26 PST